Vulnerability and Resilience Assessment Ayeyarwady Delta, Myanmar

Delta Alliance was asked to realise a vulnerability and resilience assessment for the Ayeyarwady Delta in Myanmar, comparable to the “Comparative Assessment of the Vulnerability and Resilience of 10 Deltas”, executed in 2010/2011 for 10 other deltas in the world. This assessment was co-funded by Bay of Bengal Large Marine Ecosystem Project (BOBLME) and the Global Water Partnership.

The BOBLME Project was interested in this delta assessment, as it provides a baseline of the current state of the Ayeyarwady Delta and it provides the possibility to compare the Ayeyarwady Delta to other deltas in the world. Apart from the vulnerability and resilience assessment, the study has also made an inventory of current adaptation measures and has identified knowledge gaps.

The Global Water Partnership (GWP) has also shown a keen interest to undertake activities in Myanmar within the framework of the preparation of the "Enabling Delta Life Initiative": a joint Global Program of Action on Deltas of GWP and Delta Alliance. GWP, therefore, was co-financing this delta vulnerability assessment. In addition, the Myanmar representatives and partners of GWP played an active role in the realisation of the assessment.

The Ayeyarwady Delta fans out from the limit of tidal influence at Myan Aung to the Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea. The delta region is densely populated, and plays a dominant role in the cultivation of rice in rich alluvial soil as low as just 3 meters above sea level, although it also includes fishing communities in a vast area full of rivers and streams. It is mainly populated by farming and fishing communities in several villages besides market towns, mostly located along the main rivers.

On 2 May 2008, the delta suffered a major disaster, devastated by Cyclone Nargis, which reportedly killed 84,537 people with 53,836 people missing, and left about 2.4 million affected. Total damage and loss is approximately 11.7 trillion Kyats, i.e. 4.1 billion US$ (Ministry of Social Welfare, Relief and Resettlement, 2012).

Figure 1.2. Overview of the Ayeyarwady Delta before and after by Cyclone Nargis, impacting severely around
50,400 km2 of the low-lying delta (NASA images courtesy the MODIS Rapid Response Team. Caption by Rebecca Lindsey)

Following the 2008 flooding disaster there is a clear need for an assessment of the vulnerability and resilience of the Ayeyarwady delta. Since it is unknown how much data would be available and whether the right experts could be found to contribute to the project, a two phase approach had been followed:

Phase 1: Identification mission
Phase 2: Full assessment of the vulnerability and resilient assessment of the Ayeyarwady Delta

Identification mission
The phase 1 identification mission was conducted in July 2013, jointly funded by GWP, Delta Alliance and the FAO/GEF/NORAD/Sweden funded Bay of Bengal Large Marine Ecosystems Project (BOBLME). Read The mission report (pdf) describing the possibilities and constraints of conducting Phase 2.

Major findings of the identification mission are:

The Ayeyarwady Delta will inevitably factor significantly into Myanmar's economic development and emergence as a major regional trade route. At present, however, the Ayeyarwady Delta is still largely undeveloped and the uncoordinated exploitation of its resources in some (upstream) areas may pose serious threats to the health of the delta. Thus one of the country's major challenges will be to develop effective, cross-sector management of this system in order to ensure that its development will be sustainable and that decisions made now will not bring later regret, as can be seen in deltas elsewhere.
Delta ecosystems like the Ayeyarwady Delta have a substantial adaptive and resilient capacity. In contrast to e.g. inland forests, which require decades to centuries to reach a climax succession stage, delta ecosystems, such as mangroves and marshes develop fairly quickly into rich habitats once the environmental conditions are favourable again. Worldwide successful examples show the importance of good knowledge of the basic physical and ecological processes, early involvement of local stakeholders leading to a participatory planning process and an integrated and sustainable approach to manage and develop the delta to cope with the new economic situation in Myanmar.
At present the Ayeyarwady Delta already demonstrates the first signs of significant changes (exploitation of the mangroves, overfishing, river bank erosion and deterioration of water quality). However, using the ecosystem approach, deltas can be used by the local people without compromising the integrity of these systems or overexploiting their natural resource. This approach is also advocated by the Convention on Biological Diversity (Wildlife Conservation Society, 2013) and denotes a strategy for the integrated management of land, water and living resources. The strategy promotes conservation and sustainable use in an equitable way. At the same time it is stressed that additional measures should be adopted like improving conservation awareness, fighting poverty, improving the weak systematic biological monitoring systems, stimulate grassroots support for conservation and strengthen law enforcement.
Ensuring the integrity of the linkages between delta and the river usually requires to take measures upstream. Although the highly dynamic estuarine ecosystems and their species are adapted to seasonal changes in freshwater flows, upstream activities that permanently change the total flow (such as dams, deforestation, climate change) may have significant consequences.
It was concluded that the second phase would be very welcomed in Myanmar. For that purpose a more detailed proposal for phase 2 has been prepared based on the findings of the identification mission.

Full vulnerability and resilient assessment
The full vulnerability and resilient assessment has taken place in 2014. During the scoping mission it became clear that the degree of salt water intrusion has a major influence on the agricultural activities in the delta. Moreover, there is a very distinct difference (in terms of land and water use, livelihoods, economic activities, vulnerability) between the urbanised region around Yangon and the rural delta. For a useful vulnerability assessment, the Delta is therefore divided in 4 different zones, each with its own assessment:

The Lower delta, permanently under influence of salt water intrusion
The Middle delta, under seasonal influence of salt water intrusion
The Upper delta, beyond the reach of salt water intrusion
The Urbanised delta around Yangon

On the basis of these four assessments an overall assessment for the Ayeyarwady has been compiled. Moreover, a comparative analysis related to 13 other deltas already studied in the 'Comparative assessment of the vulnerability and resilience of 10 deltas - Extended version with 14 deltas' project has been made.

Mission to Myanmar
A mission to Myanmar was carried out from 2 -13 June 2014 by Mr. Wim van Driel (Alterra) and Mr. Tjitte Nauta (Deltares). During the major part of the mission they have been accompanied by Dr. Zaw Lwin Tun (Director Irrigation Department and National coordinator of GWP), Mrs. Hla Oo Nwe (Deputy Director Design Branch Irrigation Department), Mr. Phyo Myint (Irrigation Department, Ayeyarwady Region) and Mrs. Maria Arantza Pi Gonzalez (research assistant, intern, Alterra, Wageningen University).

During the mission three workshops were organised with the support of the Irrigation Department in respectively Pathein (7 June), Hinthada (10 June) and Yangon (11 June). In total more than 100 people have participated in these workshop representing at provincial and national level several ministries, as well as universities, research institutes and NGOs. Several presentations were given by these organisations. During the roundtrip Yangon – Pathein – Hinthada – Yangon several interesting places and objects were visited, giving a good impression of the most urgent issues in the Delta.

Multi-criteria analyses
During the mission, the procedure and the content for a stakeholder survey using multi-criteria analyses had been developed. On the basis of the scoping study of 2013, the results of the Nay Pyi Taw seminar (2014) and further study of the documentation a number of key issues were identified:

• Salinity intrusion
• Lack of infrastructure and asset management
• Mangroves and delta degradation
• Adverse water and environmental quality
• Public health
• Flooding and lack of drainage
• Livelihood limitations
• Lack of knowledge and innovation

A stakeholder survey was carried out during the three workshops in Pathein, Hinthada and Yangon. The survey has continued after the mission by addressing more representative universities, research institutes and NGOs. The stakeholders and multi-criteria analysis proved to be very helpful in streamlining the workshops and was welcomed by all participants as a structured way to move forward from a vision on the delta to much needed actions.

Data collection
Extensive data collection has taken place between June and August, 2014 by visiting and interviewing many organisations. This information appeared to be essential for a well-documented assessment of the Ayeyarwady Delta.

Field surveys
In collaboration with the MYFish project, the three stakeholder workshops were organised in the Delta with farmer-fisherman to discuss with them the main threats for their activities, the solutions that they see and the measures that should be taken.

Main conclusions
There is still little experience with integrated delta planning and management in Myanmar. A very sectorial approach is still being applied, with relatively low level of cooperation between the various governmental agencies. There is a growing understanding that the real challenges (now and in the future) can only be tackled through an interdisciplinary, integrated approach. Knowledge development and capacity building are high on the priority list of key issues identified during the Delta Alliance workshops organised in July 2013 and June 2014.

The Ayeyarwady Delta will inevitably factor significantly into Myanmar's economic development and emergence as a major regional trade route. At present, however, the Ayeyarwady Delta is still largely undeveloped and the uncoordinated exploitation of its resources in some (upstream) areas may pose serious threats to the health of the delta. Thus one of the country's major challenges will be to develop effective, cross-sector management of this system in order to ensure that its development will be sustainable and that decisions made now will not bring later regret, as can be seen in deltas elsewhere.

Delta ecosystems like the Ayeyarwady Delta have a substantial adaptive and resilient capacity. In contrast to e.g. inland forests, which require decades to centuries to reach a climax succession stage, delta ecosystems, such as mangroves and marshes develop fairly quickly into rich habitats once the environmental conditions are favourable again. Worldwide successful examples show the importance of good knowledge of the basic physical and ecological processes, early involvement of local stakeholders leading to a participatory planning process and an integrated and sustainable approach to manage and develop the delta to cope with the new economic situation in Myanmar.

At present the Ayeyarwady Delta already demonstrates the first signs of significant changes (exploitation of the mangroves, overfishing, river bank erosion and deterioration of water quality). However, using the ecosystem approach, deltas can be used by the local people without compromising the integrity of these systems or overexploiting their natural resource.

At the same time it is stressed that additional measures should be adopted like improving conservation awareness, fighting poverty, improving the weak systematic biological monitoring systems, stimulate grassroots support for conservation and strengthen law enforcement.

Ensuring the integrity of the linkages between delta and the river usually requires to take measures upstream. Although the highly dynamic estuarine ecosystems and their species are adapted to seasonal changes in freshwater flows, upstream activities that permanently change the total flow (such as dams, deforestation, climate change) may have significant consequences.

Finally, the stakeholders participation and multi-criteria analysis as applied during the workshops should be continued in order to develop a widely accepted action plan for the delta.

The full assessment report was published in February 2015 and can be downloaded here.

Updated January 2016