Extreme events, changes in precipitation and temperature. A new study on Po river basin

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How the climate in Po river basin will change in the next decades. Changes in precipitation and temperature, with the frequency of extreme events and a reduction of water availability in summer expected to increase. A study by P. Mercogliano and S. Castellari that can be applied to Italian river basins to prevent the risk of water crisis, to promote hydraulic security and mitigate the potential impacts of future droughts to energy and agriculture sectors.

In the last decades the climate over Po river basin has changed: data show changes in precipitation and temperature and projections indicate that in the future the area will experience a decrease of total precipitation, with the exception of the Alps in winter while the frequency of extreme precipitation events and temperature are expected to increase. All this, will result in a reduction of water availability in summer and an increasing of floods hazard that may significantly impact on activities and citizens located within Po river basin.
According to these scenarios, what should we expect for future Po river discharges?
This question has been addressed by the CMCC Foundation researchers Paola Mercogliano and Sergio Castellari, in a study published on the journal “Ingegneria dell’ambiente” (Vol.3 n.1/2016) and entitled “Scenari di cambiamenti climatici nel periodo 2021-2050: quale disponibilità idrica del fiume Po?”
The study, based on one of the most advanced numerical climate/hydrological/water balance modeling chain, provide an estimate of the climate change impacts on Po river discharges under the IPCC emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for the period 2021-2050 with respect to the control period 1982-2011: projected discharges are expected to reduce in summers, thus droughts will be more likely to occur, while discharges will increase in winters, coherently with the precipitation and temperature anomalies obtained from the climate simulations.
The methodology presented can be applied to other Italian river basins to prevent the risk of water crisis, to promote hydraulic security and mitigate the potential impacts
of future droughts to energy and agriculture sectors.
Continue to read in Italian (full version of the article).

 

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